Verde may be past its peak

Predicting river runoff is a fickle fantasy fraught with failure.  We've been thinking the Verde River had yet another ace up its snowpack sleeve.  We've been thinking that the Verde's crescendo climax was yet to come. Now we think we're wrong.  Today, we think the Verde has seen its seasonal peak(s) and it's all downhill from here (no pun intended).

What changed our mind?  Lack of snow, that's what did it.  We set out Sunday morning to go snowshoeing.  We foolishly believed there would be plenty of snow beginning at the Rocky Park exit and increasing at Schnebly Hill, becoming downright deep near Munds Park and we believed we would have plenty of snow to enjoy every which way but loose.  We were wrong.

It would have been impossible to snowshoe at either Rocky Park or Schnebly Hill.  There was perhaps enough snow in the shadows near Fox Ranch but it was paltry indeed.  Munds Park had more snow in the open areas that it did under the trees.  We decided to turn around and fuggetaboutit at Willard Springs.  Luckily, there appeared to be enough snow near Willard to give it a try.  As long as we avoided the many barren spots, we found enough snow to enjoy on our shoes.

We enjoyed snowshoeing alongside the little seasonal stream that eventually provides about half of the flow through Munds Canyon.  We both realized the Verde had already shot its wad.  I realized that I have become too dependent on watching the US NRCS SNOTEL data.  Yes, it's true, there's still a lot of snow at White Horse, Happy Jack and Baker Butte.  But those three data sites don't a snowpack make.  Yes, there's still a ba-zillion acre-feet of runoff yet to come off the hill.  No, there's not enough snow left to create that much-anticipated crescendo climax.  Barring a warm rain or a series of 75 degrees days on The Rim, the remainder of the runoff should be an orderly  event with progressively smaller peaks.  The good news for river runners is that the baseflow on the Verde should be raftable and kayakable for at least two and probably three to four more weeks. Eventually, the water on the day stretch will run practically clear as spring water. Toward the true tail end of the runoff season, the water should be noticeably warmer and near crystal clean. It will be a match made in Heaven for modern era river runners, most of whom have never seen the Verde is such a state of transcendental fluvial glory.

We're appended two 120-day flow charts for the Verde at Camp Verde and also the Verde into Horseshoe. The first peak was that awesome late January event that laid the foundation for this incredible snow season.  The second peak took place at the end of the first week of March.  The third peak was logged just before the Spring Equinox.  It's now reasonable to expect subsequent blips in this year's hydrograph to be progressively lower.

The Beaver Creek system is pretty well completely finished.  Most of the action will come from Sycamore Canyon, Oak and West Clear Creeks.  West Clear, in particular, should hold flows on the day stretch remain runnable well into April.

We were both disappointed in the available snow "up top," as we affectionately call The Rimlands.  But it is what it is.  At the very least, we have enjoyed a truly spectacular snow show this year.  It's one for the record books and one we will long remember.  Viva Verde!