Mid March Snow & Water Report

Amazing things are happening in the Arizona snowpack and streamflow.

First, let's take a general look at the snow.  You all know from the post below that the Snow Water Equivalent is in great shape.  The depth of snow has been shrinking quickly in the past week.  Duh, the temps have been on the rise!  The phenomenal thing about this year's snowpack is that the Snow Water HAS NOT been shrinking.
Some SNOTEL sites actually show their snow water RISING while the snowpack is SHRINKING!  Explain that one to me!

Even at sites that show declines in the snow water, the loss is trivial.  Take White Horse Lake south of Williams.  This location is notorious for either having very little snow or seeing it's snow disappear very quickly, especially less than two weeks from April.  Well,  Whitehorse is still sitting on 13.5 inches of snow water!  If this was a poker game, White Horse would be in "fat city!"  In the past week, White Horse has only lost 1.3 inches of its snow water.  Meanwhile its snowpack has shrunk substantially, falling 15 inches from 49 to 34 inches.  Gee, White Horse still has almost THREE FEET of snow.  As I said: AMAZING!

The White Horse Lake snowpack drains directly into Sycamore Canyon and shows up at the Verde Clarkdale gauge.  This morning, that gauge is really pumping right along at 1650 cfs.  That's the highest reading of any Verde tributary in the system.  Granted it is technically a "Mainstem" reading but wink, wink, we all know that 99.999% of that flow is coming from Sycamore Canyon.  Even West Clear Creek's flow pales in comparison to Sycamore's output right now.  West Clear is running 1230.

So, think about it--There's still almost three feet of snow containing well over a foot of pure water sitting up top at White Horse Lake.  The flows in the Upper Verde (Sycamore Canyon confluence to Oak Creek Confluence) are going higher--possibly a LOT higher.  Due to all of the riparian vegetation in this stretch, it is probably NOT a good time to put a boat on the water.  The current will be fast and pushy and potentially deadly.  As much as we'd like to paddle this stretch right now, we're going to enjoy it from the safety and comfort of the shoreline!

The story is the same pretty much everywhere in the Verde watershed.  The snow depth is shrinking but the water content is holding essentially steady.  Bizarre but true.In the past week, Happy Jack's snow has slimmed from 62 to 48 inches while its water has only downticked from 18.5 to 17.8 inches.  Gee, ONLY four feet of snow still left at Happy Jack a mere 13 days from April.  Gee....!

Now for the real puzzler: Baker Butte.  Baker's snow depth has declined ten inches in teh past week, dropping from 88 to 78 inches--a mere six and a half feet.  Get this--in the same time, Baker's water content has RISEN from 26.4 to 26.8 inches!  I hope Charlie or Dino can explain this anomaly to me. Puzzling and amazing.  Baker's snowpack is a great indicator for the upper reaches of the West Clear Creek watershed.
What Baker's snowpack and water content says to me is that West Clear will soon be the star of the show.
Once White Horse lets go of most of its snow, the Baker area will take center stage and West Clear will really be pumping some serious water.  Will it be enough to float some mobile homes downstream?  Good question.

The Salt hasn't cut loose yet.  No surprise there.  Baldy's snow depth shrunk from 61 to 48 inches but the water content ROSE from 15.9 to 16.2 inches.  Even though Baldy's daytime high temp has been in the upper 50's lately, its overnight lows are WELL below freezing, 18 last night and as low as 13 in the past week.  So, there's not much chance of that snowpack saying Bye-Bye anytime soon.  Even without the high elevation snow, the Salt is running a real nice 1600+ on the day stretch and over 2000 into Roosevelt.  It's definitely Jimmy Buffet Boating over there on the Salt right now.

The Gila is really doing well with almost 1,000 near Red Rock, New Mexico.  All the other readings are nicely plump.  San Carlos reservoir is a little over 25% full and has a real nice upslope trendline.  Will it fill?  Probably not.  But it's going to get a LOT more water before it's all over.  Here's an oddity for ya--the Gila down by Goodyear, Arizona is running nearly 8,000 cfs.  That's not a typo.  Meanwhile, they are actually letting out 2750 cfs BELOW Painted Rock Reservoir.  How weird is that?  VERY weird!  There will actually be some substantial water making it to the Sea of Cortez this year.

The Little Colorado is holding steady but the upstream reaches are showing signs of beginning to flow.  Grand Falls is over 500 cfs.  I'm pretty certain it will peak between 1000 and 2000 in the next few weeks.  We're going to wait until it's at least 1,000 before making the obligatory trek out there onto The Rez.

Let's close this synopsis with a brief speculation about the upcoming weather.  Take a look at the Climate Prediction Center's various forecasts.  You will see they are calling for above average temps and normal or below average precipitation.  Pay particular attention to the 6-10 day precip and the 8-14 day precip.  They both show below average precip.  Well, there is this magical switch hidden up there in the sky.  Along about April 1, some unseen hand flips that switch and Arizona's precipitation is over, done, finished, kaput.  Whatever we have on April 1 is pretty much what we're going to live with for the remainder of the "off season."  Those big honking storms simply don't come to visit after April 1.  Since the next two weeks are progged to be below normal precip, I'd have to speculate that we've got all the snow we're going to get.

Meanwhile, there's a couple of little cold fronts progged to pass through the area this weekend and also next week.  That will slow down the melt and hold the snowpack tight for awhile longer yet, especially in the White Mountains and Salt watershed. OK, class, you know where this is going.

Meanwhile, what happens in April and beyond in Arizona?  It gets progressively warmer and then hot and hotter.  That's simply the way it is in Arizona--the temps gradually ramp up until their summertime crescendo in the high hundred million melt your brain range.

The Climate Prediction Center is pretty much pegging the Southwest for above normal temps, as you can see for yourself.  So...what does this mean?  Simple, it means we're probably going to dodge the dreaded proverbial warm rainstorm on the snowpack.  That means we probably won't have any catastrophic melt down of the snowpack.  The pack should continue to come off in an orderly fashion, peaking early on the Verde in early to mid-April and on the Salt from mid to late April.  Chances and odds continue to be very good that the Salt will be raftable AFTER the permit season ends May 15.  The Verde should continue to be raftable for several weeks, possibly towards the end of April.

Well, there you have it.  We hope this helps.  Have a great day, get out on the river and enjoy Many Cheers!  jp