Friday, February 26, 2010

Friday Snow & Water Report

I cain't wait until Sunday to do the Weekly Report--I'm like a kid on Christmas Eve--I wanna rip open those gifts NOW!

The snowpack has really improved in since we last provided an update.  The four sites we monitor all gained some decent water and the snowpack itself continued to consolidate without losing any water content. Here's the fat of the matter:


Happy Jack gained 1.8 inches of water between 2/21 and today.  It's snowpack rallied from 43 to 56 and is now back to 50 inches.  The total snow water is 15.9 and at the high level for this season so far.

Whitehorse Lake rose from 11.1 on 2/20 to 12.7 inches of water on 2/23-24, a gain of 1.6 inches of actual water. It has since lost a wee bit of water and is now 12.5 inches.  The snow there gained from 31 to 42 and is now back at 37 inches.  This is pretty phenomenal for Whitehorse for this time of year.

Baker Butte went from 19.1 to 21.6 inches of water yesterday, a seasonal high so far.  That's an amazing gain of 2.5 inches of actual water!!!!  It is now at 21.4.  Baker snowpack went from 60 to 75 inches before settling back to 70 inches as of today.  Folks, this is really off the charts.

The Verde really has the snowpack this year.  All tribs of the Verde will be running really well for weeks (barring the dreaded warm rain storm).  Meanwhile, the Salt is in good shape, although somewhat less spectacular than the Verde.

Baldy ticked up from 13.5 to 14.3 inches of water.  Its snowpack rose from 45 to 63 but is back at 42 inches.  That's just a good, old-fashioned cement layer of snow there.  Interestingly, Maverick Fork is sitting on more water and snow that Baldy.  It currently has 15.9 inches of water and 53 inches of snow.




The US NRCS will issue their pivotal March 1 report early next week.  I can tell you right now there will be some EYE-POPPING percentages in that report.  The numbers will probably be front page news in the Arizona Repulsive newspaper and on metro TV.  River runner tongues will be a waggin' and people will be polishing their paddles.

How's the river flow doing?  As you might expect, the rise in snow and snow water content has caused a slight overall drop in river flows.  The Verde is shining perfectly right now, purring at 999 cfs at Camp Verde and 1110 into Horseshoe.  All of the Verde tribs are great low water runs right now.  Obviously, they are going to be spectacular when the melt begins.  I wno't speculate right now on when and how high the mainstem peak will be.  Suffice to say it's going to be significant.

The Salt has an anomaly going on.  The Black River at Fort Apache is over 2000 while the day stretch (a combination of the Black & White) is only running 1370.  A little bit more of 1660 is going into Roosevelt.  Obviously, this is about to change when the Black's flow hits the mainstem.  The speculation right now for the Salt is just how low it will go between now and its peak this spring.  Frankly, I really doubt that it will go below 1,000 on the Day Stretch and perhaps 1400-1500 into Roosevelt.  I could be very conservative here, actually.  We might be seeing a day Stretch baseflow around 1500 plus or minus for weeks and weeks.
The added bonus if the Salt if the high elevation watershed.  It's FAR less susceptible to a warm rain storm.  What might be a warm rain storm on the Verde will almost assuredly be a snow or sleet storm on the bulk of the Salt watershed.

As I've noted in past posts, the Good Ol' Days average calendar peak of the Salt used to be April 18.  This year sure looks like one of those fabulous years of yesteryear.  Consequently (barring a tropical rainstorm), I'd have to say a mid-April peak is VERY likely once again.  If the Salt snowpack comes off in an orderly manner with a textbook diurnal variation, we could well see Day Stretch flows in excess of 1,000 almost to Memorial Day.

Elsewhere, the Gila continues to offer excellent low water boating opportunities.  Most other creeks and streams are too low to mention.

One of the "sleeper" events certain to happen this spring is an Arizona Highways front cover episode at Grand Falls.  Mud Ball Falls will be in full glory sometime this spring.  It's no longer a matter of "IF," simply "when."


If you've never seen Grand Falls run big in the springtime, this is YOUR year!  There is a GREAT day run from the bottom of Grand Falls down to Black Falls.  It's a hellacious shuttle but it's worth it.  There's a petroglyph panel down there that will knock you socks off--pretty much as good as Newspaper Rock up in Canyonlands.  It's not all that difficult to carry a boat down the trail below The Falls.  It looks outrageous but it's really not as bad as it looks.

I learned a LONG time ago not to bother trying to predict Grand Falls--it's the most fickle falls you will ever find.  However, this year it's going to be a piece of cake to time it right out on The Rez.  There will be a significant baseflow pulsing through Winslow.  Give it maybe 2-3 days after that baseflow levels out so the channel can fill and the eddies can fill and then you're good to go.  It takes a LOT of water to soak up that sandy channel between Winslow and Grand Falls--WAAAY more than you would think.

Since we're going to be down in Arizona during the most likely time for a Grand Falls peak flow, maybe we will see you there!  Trust me, it's not to be missed.  This is one place where size really DOES matter--the bigger the flow the better!

Monday, February 22, 2010

Whazzup?

Well, Sports Fans, looks like our euphoria of yesterday was well placed.  The Happy Jack SNOTEL has gained a full 12 inches (AKA One Foot) of snow since midnight.  Better yet, the SWE gain was a whopping 1.3 inches.

In the World of SNOTEL Guys, there's such a thing as "snow to water ratio."  In a perfect world, one inch of rain would equal 12 inches of snow.  Being as a Perfect World is an Imperfect Thing, it never really works out that way.  So, what's good about these numbers is that the NEW one foot of new snow is what is widely known as "wet, heavy snow."  The 1.3 inches of water should have produced 16 inches of snow.  In the Perfect World of River Runners, this is a wildly FUN thing!  Hopefully, Arizona River Runners (both the company AND those unaffiliated free radicals who call themselves Arizona river runners) will be celebrating with copious high fives and lots of libation of the high octane variety.  Congratulations, folks, ya'll got yerselfs a righteous river season!

OK, let's take a look-see at the other SNOTELs and see whazzup.

Are you ready for some SNOWFALL?   (Cue theme song to Monday Night Football).

Just as Happy Jack (and Jack's gotta be HAPPY!) got the gift of a generous snow-water ratio, Baldy fared even better in the Grand Scheme of Things.  Get this, Baldy got 19 inches of snow since midnight!  Yes, you read that right.  The snowpack went from 46 inches to 65 inches TOO-DAAY!  However, the snow water equivalent only rose 8ths of an inch.  That means Baldy's snow is like the Powder of Your Dreams.  Light & Fluffy and enough to fill the floor of Heaven itself.  WOW!  Is this like good or what?  Yes, like real good, Dude! 

This was a classic Winter Win-Win Situation.  Everyone won.  No one lost.  You can count Happy Campers 'til the cows come home.  The snowstorm was every bit as good as predicted.  Sometimes even the weather wonks get it right.  Every dog has its day.  Life is good, how 'bout you?

Cheers, jp

Sunday, February 21, 2010

Stop the presses

This just in from our most faithful blog reader in Flagstaff--Flag is progged to get 8-14 inches more snow in the next 24-36 hours!  WOW--this is wonderfully wild in a good way.

I cued up the QPF graphic and, yes, it's true, there's enough water progged all across the Rimlands and the White Mountains to verify this snowfall prediction.  I'd bet there's simply no way any part of the Rimlands will get LESS than six inches.  And there's a high probability that the Rimlands will get MORE than 12 inches!  How good is that?  Meanwhile, the Salt watershed (AKA The White Mountains) will almost assuredly get upwards of a foot more snow ALL ACROSS the ENTIRE snowpack!  Is that wild or what?

What does this mean?  Well, regular readers know that the existing snowpack has been consolidating and compacting.  The famous SWE (Snow Water Equivalent) has remained basically the same.  This is a good thing--a VERY good thing.  Meanwhile, the existing snowpack, even as good as it is, remains a tad bit vulnerable to unseasonable warmth or a warm rain.

What's happening with this incoming snow event is the equivalent of throwing a nice down comforter over the existing snowpack.  It's going to insulate and protect that hardened existing snowpack.  The layer that's going to get put down in the next couple of days won't be compacted and consolidated.  Therefore, it can take some heat--it can take some rain and it will shield the existing snowpack from the affects of those events.

What this will do in terms you and I can understand is simple--it's going to protect an already outrageous snowpack and virtuallty assure a kick anatomy river running season that could easily extend well into May on the Salt and easily ALL of March on the Verde.  I mean this is totally awesome.

Now that the existing snowpack has some decent protection, it's going to take much more than a garden variety low intensity "warm storm" to knock off that snowpack.  Granted, a huge, high intensity warm rain will wipe a snowpack clean. but that's not what we are seeing in the prevailing weather pattern.  We're seeing REAL cold arctic air colliding with El Nino-driven water vapor and we're seeing it collect right smack at Ground Zero for Arizona River Runners!  How good is this?  REAL GOOD!

I will keep this blog updated on the final snowfall totals and we shall see just how the water equates to the snow density, etc.  In the meantime, let's hear a stirring rendition of that 1929 classic: "Happy Days Are Here Again!"

So long sad times
Go long bad times
We are rid of you at last

Howdy gay times
Cloudy gray times
You are now a thing of the past

Happy days are here again
The skies above are clear again
So let's sing a song of cheer again
Happy days are here again

Altogether shout it now
There's no one
Who can doubt it now
So let's tell the world about it now
Happy days are here again

Your cares and troubles are gone
There'll be no more from now on
From now on ...

Happy days are here again
The skies above are clear again
So, Let's sing a song of cheer again

Happy times
Happy nights
Happy days
Are here again!

Weekly Water & Snow Report

Greetings, River Rats, it's time once again for another thrilling episode of The Weekly Water & Snow Report!

Hey, Rats, it's a FUN report so pull up a chair, pop some corn and chow down on some meaty stuff!

Let's get to the best news first--The US NRCS mid-February report was released this week.  It states in black and white that the Verde River streamflow is progged to 291% of average and the Salt's will be 238% of average!  WHA--WHOOO!

Meanwhile, the Verde snowpack is over 200% of average and the Salt's is 220% of average.  In January, the Salt received OVER 300% of average snowfall!!!!  Get this tidbit--The Little Colorado snowpack right now is 357% of average.  Hey, River Rats, that's ASTRONOMICAL!

OK, now that the euphoria has worn off a little bit, let's take a look at reality--the current conditions.

All of the boatable stretches of the Verde River are in great shape for this time of year.  The Verde above Clarkdale is purring right along at 250 cfs.  Oak Creek is 150.  That great stretch from Montezuma Castle to Camp Verde is 175.  Camp Verde's White Bridge is 950 and there's 1600 going into Horseshoe.  Even the Verde below Bartlettt Dam is runnable @ 550 right now.

As usual, it's too cold for the Salt snowpack to loosen up much so the day stretch is running "only" 625 but there's 965 going into Roosevelt.  The Gila would be the hot spot for adventurous boaters.  There's 850 at Redrock, 500 at Duncan and 704 near Safford.  That's EXCELLENT!

OK, how 'bout current snow conditions.  Since our report last week, there's been basically no change.
Baker Butte snow depth is the same at 63 inches.  The water in the snow rose to 19.5 from 19.2.  Happy Jack's water remained identical at 14.1 even though the snow consolidated from 46 to 43 inches.  Baldy's snowpack shrunk from 54 to 45 inches but the snow water remained precisely the same at 13.5 inches.  White Horse Lake shrunk from 37 to 31 but the water luckily shrunk only two tenths of an inch, dropping from 11.7 to 11.5 inches.

All the low snow in the south deserts is gone--Sabino is back to baseflow at 37 cfs.  Grand Falls remains the same as last week, roughly 250 cfs.  Never fear, Grand Falls is gonna be cookin' this spring.  Better book your view spot now!

Well, that's 'bout it, River Rats.  Now you know why the first box we packed in our Big Truck yesterday was the one filled with our river gear.  LET'S GO BOATING!

PS--I just uploaded the 19-page US NRCS Feb. 15 snow report.  You can use this shortened link to see it:  http://bit.ly/nrcs0215

Sunday, February 14, 2010

Mid February water review

Tis Valentine's Day and tis a wonderful time to review the water conditions in Arizona.  Let's start way down south.  Sabino Creek outside Tucson is running 279 cfs.  That doesn't sound like much but that would be incredibly beautiful water in Sabino Canyon, especially since the temps are in the upper 60's right now with clear spring blue skies.  WOW, that's about as good as it gets in Tucson in February.  When I moved to Arizona, I arrived on Valentine's Day of 1979.  It wwas a big water year similar to this one and every little creek and wash was running.  HA!  I thought that's the way it ALWAYS was.  Dummie!

The Upper Gila river has a real nice baseflow in it right now.  Readings vary from 400 to 500+ cfs.  This will be one of the few years that will be a great boating season. 

The Salt and Verde have tightened up.  The day stretch of the Salt is running a little less than 500 while the White Bridge to Beasley on the Verde is running near 700, a great canoe level.  The Verde into Horseshoe is less than 1000 and the Salt into Roosevelt is on the high side of 800.

The Little Colorado out at Grand Falls is probably running about 250 cfs. 

What's happening with the snowpack?  Baker Butte Summit has over 5 feet of snow with a 19 inch water equivalent. Happy Jack is a whisker shy of 4 feet with 14 inches of water content.  The two Baldy sites in the Upper Salt are running about 54 inches of snow with a 13 inch water content.  The real surprises are White Horse Lake and Fry in the Verde.  White Horse has 3 feet of snow and fully one third of that is water--12 inches! That's HUGE for White Horse.  Why?   Well, it means the Upper Verde below Sycamore Canyon is going to run great this spring--really, really GREAT!  The Fry site has about 4 feet of snow and 15 inches of water.  That's an indicator of how nice Oak Creek will run.  Chances are all of the Verde's tributaries will be boatable this year for a protracted period of time.

This warm weather will bring off the low snow--that's what the Sabino readings are telling us.  The high snow is still in no danger of going anyplace--it's still too cold at night. Even though Baldy's daytime temp has been in the mid-40's, teh overnight lows have been dropping down to 10-12 degrees.  Nah, that particular snowpack ain't goin' nowhere!

I'd reckon the water will start showing a steady rise with this heat wave in Arizona, mostly due to low elevation snow.  We will keep a close eye on how the snowpack behaves and probably do weekly updates from here on out until it's obvious that the snow is mostly gone.

Sunday, February 7, 2010

One of The World's Most Dangerous Destinations?

After the Super Bowl tonight, I was idly reading the internet news.  A FOX News story entitled "The World's Most Dangerous Destinations" caught my eyes.  I figured it would be a typical FOX Chicken Little article about how the falling sky could kill you or something like that.

Anyway, I was reading hte article, nodding my head, "YES."  The article was about truly dangerous places like deep in the heart of Indonesia and on the flanks of the active volcano down in the Caribbean and about Mexico and that really wild and dangerous place Vanuatu and I am going, "YEAH, they sure got that right."

And then, LO & BEHOLD, the #5 Most Dangerous Destination is Northeastern Arizona!

WHAT?  HUH?  SAY WHAT?  Honestly & truly, I was stunned and speechless and totally wide awake.  I mean the other four places are truly deep dark holes of almost certain death.  But Northeastern Arizona?  You've got to be kidding.

In typical FOX style here is what they said.  This is the whole statement--nothing edited:

"Northeastern Arizona
Of course, when it comes down to it, nowhere on the planet is truly safe. A perfect example of this can be found in Arizona, which is known for its consistently arid climate, but where snow and rain storms in the northeastern part of the state were so severe in late January that President Obama declared a state of emergency for the area. Members of the Hopi Tribe and Navajo Nation as well as their livestock were stranded by the deep snow and mud. Cows were reportedly seen standing dead in the snow in some areas. Citizens needing medical care were airlifted out and likewise, supplies were being airlifted in, with more than 1,500 people needing assistance. As of this writing emergency repairs had shut down part of Arizona 89A between Sedona and Flagstaff. FEMA, who coordinated rescue and relief efforts on the ground, dispensed safety advice good to remember during any cold climate travel, including watching for signs of frostbite – “loss of feeling and white or pale appearance in extremities such as fingers, toes, ear lobes, and the tip of the nose” – as well as signs of hypothermia, which include, “uncontrollable shivering, memory loss, disorientation, incoherence, slurred speech, drowsiness, and apparent exhaustion.”

You can click here to read the full story.

Geeze.

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Amp up The Stuff

Our trip prep right now revolves around pre-packing stuff.  We are genetically related to The Joad Family.  You remember them from John Steinbeck's "Grapes of Wrath."  Well, they are our Role Models for packing for a trip.  They set a really high bar and pretty much wrote the book of standards and procedures for carrying stuff out on the highway looking for adventure.  We think fond thoughts of them everytime we get ready to put the pedal to the metal. 

If Tom Joad was alive today, he'd be a New Age motivational speaker giving high dollar seminars called "Trip Planning, Zen & Now," or "The Fine Art & Science of Stuffing Stuff."  Heck, I'd pay my $295 to attend!  I'm sure such seminars would be a real hit in Sedona.  I can imagine the headlines now, "Now Reincarnated, Tom Joad and his award-winning lecture series, "Hit The Road to a Higher You."  As long as he didn't have me sit in a sweat lodge for hours after a long fast, count me in.

What all of this packing means is that we are prowling our boxes and shelves of stuff trying to find more stuff that we can carry more hundreds of miles so that it can sit on a shelf someplace else just like it has here for the past couple of years.  You know, a person just can't have too much stuff and the more stuff that sits around and never gets used, the better.  Yeah, I know a lot of people say "If you haven't used it in a year, get rid of it."  But what fun is that.  It doesn't do a single thing to create a Magic Mountain of stuff and heck it could lead to a naked-looking basement, too.  Bare shelves?  NEVER!  Empty storage boxes?  NEVER!  The more stuff we can have sitting around idly doing nothing to contribute to our quality of lives, THE BETTER.  Long live useless stuff, right Tom?
 
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