Friday Snow & Water Report

I cain't wait until Sunday to do the Weekly Report--I'm like a kid on Christmas Eve--I wanna rip open those gifts NOW!

The snowpack has really improved in since we last provided an update.  The four sites we monitor all gained some decent water and the snowpack itself continued to consolidate without losing any water content. Here's the fat of the matter:


Happy Jack gained 1.8 inches of water between 2/21 and today.  It's snowpack rallied from 43 to 56 and is now back to 50 inches.  The total snow water is 15.9 and at the high level for this season so far.

Whitehorse Lake rose from 11.1 on 2/20 to 12.7 inches of water on 2/23-24, a gain of 1.6 inches of actual water. It has since lost a wee bit of water and is now 12.5 inches.  The snow there gained from 31 to 42 and is now back at 37 inches.  This is pretty phenomenal for Whitehorse for this time of year.

Baker Butte went from 19.1 to 21.6 inches of water yesterday, a seasonal high so far.  That's an amazing gain of 2.5 inches of actual water!!!!  It is now at 21.4.  Baker snowpack went from 60 to 75 inches before settling back to 70 inches as of today.  Folks, this is really off the charts.

The Verde really has the snowpack this year.  All tribs of the Verde will be running really well for weeks (barring the dreaded warm rain storm).  Meanwhile, the Salt is in good shape, although somewhat less spectacular than the Verde.

Baldy ticked up from 13.5 to 14.3 inches of water.  Its snowpack rose from 45 to 63 but is back at 42 inches.  That's just a good, old-fashioned cement layer of snow there.  Interestingly, Maverick Fork is sitting on more water and snow that Baldy.  It currently has 15.9 inches of water and 53 inches of snow.




The US NRCS will issue their pivotal March 1 report early next week.  I can tell you right now there will be some EYE-POPPING percentages in that report.  The numbers will probably be front page news in the Arizona Repulsive newspaper and on metro TV.  River runner tongues will be a waggin' and people will be polishing their paddles.

How's the river flow doing?  As you might expect, the rise in snow and snow water content has caused a slight overall drop in river flows.  The Verde is shining perfectly right now, purring at 999 cfs at Camp Verde and 1110 into Horseshoe.  All of the Verde tribs are great low water runs right now.  Obviously, they are going to be spectacular when the melt begins.  I wno't speculate right now on when and how high the mainstem peak will be.  Suffice to say it's going to be significant.

The Salt has an anomaly going on.  The Black River at Fort Apache is over 2000 while the day stretch (a combination of the Black & White) is only running 1370.  A little bit more of 1660 is going into Roosevelt.  Obviously, this is about to change when the Black's flow hits the mainstem.  The speculation right now for the Salt is just how low it will go between now and its peak this spring.  Frankly, I really doubt that it will go below 1,000 on the Day Stretch and perhaps 1400-1500 into Roosevelt.  I could be very conservative here, actually.  We might be seeing a day Stretch baseflow around 1500 plus or minus for weeks and weeks.
The added bonus if the Salt if the high elevation watershed.  It's FAR less susceptible to a warm rain storm.  What might be a warm rain storm on the Verde will almost assuredly be a snow or sleet storm on the bulk of the Salt watershed.

As I've noted in past posts, the Good Ol' Days average calendar peak of the Salt used to be April 18.  This year sure looks like one of those fabulous years of yesteryear.  Consequently (barring a tropical rainstorm), I'd have to say a mid-April peak is VERY likely once again.  If the Salt snowpack comes off in an orderly manner with a textbook diurnal variation, we could well see Day Stretch flows in excess of 1,000 almost to Memorial Day.

Elsewhere, the Gila continues to offer excellent low water boating opportunities.  Most other creeks and streams are too low to mention.

One of the "sleeper" events certain to happen this spring is an Arizona Highways front cover episode at Grand Falls.  Mud Ball Falls will be in full glory sometime this spring.  It's no longer a matter of "IF," simply "when."


If you've never seen Grand Falls run big in the springtime, this is YOUR year!  There is a GREAT day run from the bottom of Grand Falls down to Black Falls.  It's a hellacious shuttle but it's worth it.  There's a petroglyph panel down there that will knock you socks off--pretty much as good as Newspaper Rock up in Canyonlands.  It's not all that difficult to carry a boat down the trail below The Falls.  It looks outrageous but it's really not as bad as it looks.

I learned a LONG time ago not to bother trying to predict Grand Falls--it's the most fickle falls you will ever find.  However, this year it's going to be a piece of cake to time it right out on The Rez.  There will be a significant baseflow pulsing through Winslow.  Give it maybe 2-3 days after that baseflow levels out so the channel can fill and the eddies can fill and then you're good to go.  It takes a LOT of water to soak up that sandy channel between Winslow and Grand Falls--WAAAY more than you would think.

Since we're going to be down in Arizona during the most likely time for a Grand Falls peak flow, maybe we will see you there!  Trust me, it's not to be missed.  This is one place where size really DOES matter--the bigger the flow the better!