Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Verde River Trip Summary

I've been working for over 2 hours this morning writing up my account of my Verde River Trip this past weekend.  I realized that the account would make a single blog post far too long.  So, I split up the account into 9 posts, including this one.  That way you can read as much or as little as you may wish.  Hopefully, the blog posts are logically titled and organized.  If not, tough luck.

In a nutshell, it was a wonderful trip in every way.  My eternal thanks go out to Dex & Jodi for the great gift of their dedication to the Verde River.  Dex is now the River Ranger for the Wild & Scenic River.  he has a warehouse that would easily rival any commercial outfitter.  He works with a cadre of devoted volunteers who obviously love him.  He has at least 20 such volunteers who serve on a regular basis and another 50 who serve now and then!  As a volunteer manager myself, I can tell you this doesn't happen by accident.  It takes a special skill and talent to attract and keep such devoted volunteers.  Way to go, Dex!

Dex has mastered the arcane bureaucracy of the Forest Service and he is doing a great job in every aspect.  We are so proud of what he has accomplished on behalf of the Verde River.  He's the reigning Old Man River!  Jodi's talents and personality are such gifts in so many ways.  You GO, Girl!

It was inspirational and poetic for me to travel with these two wonderful humans.  It really brought everything full circle for the three of us to be on the river together at this time and in this context.


The simple word "thanks" doesn't do justice to the gratitude I feel for the honor and privilege to travel on the Verde with Dex and Jodi this weekend.  I will be forever grateful to have had this experience.  May you two enjoy Happy Trails Always and All ways FOREVER!  THANK YOU!

Water

Way down below, you will find the hydrographs for this trip.  The flow was clearly well above 2,000 cfs during our Verde River trip.  This is a flow that's quite rare on the last weekend in March of any given year.  During the early 1980's, a flow like this would have been pretty normal.  Then along came the drought.  Flows like this vaporized during the drought.  It was a delight to have this much fluffy water during a nice, sunny warm time of the Arizona Spring. 

It was windy and rather cool Saturday but at least it was a tailwind.  The overnight low was 28.  However, on Sunday, the temps rallied into at least the upper 70's and probably the low 80's.  Sunday's overnight low was a mere 46.  All of this great weather made the cold water feel quite user-friendly.

The Verde River's famous rapids have undergone a lot of changes in recent years.  It's not the same river I remember.  Pre Falls and The Falls are truly knarly at these levels.  I wouldn't want to run either one of them.  We sneaked through the trees on river right to get into a position to scout a "must do" ferry over to a small eddy above the Falls.  Luckily, we all made the run.  If you miss that small eddy, you're going over The Falls and you're going to swim--guaranteed! 

After we got our boats into the little eddy, we then lined them on the far left side of The Falls.  The lining job was especially tricky but Dexter was in charge and his experience with this procedure made it look easy.  All of the many features of The Falls look MUCH different than I remember them.  The wave train has changed, the Ladders slot on the right is no longer feasible--there's at least two more keeper waves and the ledge hole looks far more frightening than I can ever recall.

Trust me, there's no way I'd want to run Pre Falls either!  Both of them looked very scary.  You couldn't pay me to take people through either of them in a commercial raft.  Nope.  No way.

Punk Rock is Punk Rock.  It's a hug the left shore and hope for the best.You really have to work at it.  Bushman has two really big, Grand-Canyonesque waves and you can't miss them.  If you're lucky, they won't flip you.  The vegetation has squeezed the river flow in a lot of places and rendered normally tame rapids into forces to be reckoned with.  There are a lot more potential "wrap rocks" sticking out here and there than there used to be.

Dex says it gets a lot easier at lower flows and becomes even more problematic at higher flows.  I guess that's to be expected.  It's not the same old casual Verde it was throughout the 1980's and 1990's.  It's definitely a formidable river now.  Buyer beware!

Usage

The Verde River is now surprisingly little used.  Frankly, I couldn't believe how few people there were on the river.  I was shocked.

Here we have a free-flowing river that doesn't require a fee or a mandatory permit.  It's over 2,000 cfs in near perfect weather.  The desert is coming alive with flowers--the scenery and wildlife are spectacular.  The rapids are in rare form.  But where are the people?  Amazing but true--there were essentially no people on the Verde River during our trip.

Dex and I speculated there would be 100 people on the river this weekend.  Gee, we sure would have lost a bet on that foolish prognostication.  We counted only 17 people on the river on Saturday.  On Sunday, we saw only people we had already counted the day before and NO other boaters coming down to Childs!  Nope, nary a soul.  So, that's it--17 people besides ourselves.

Rumor has it all of the Flagstaff and Prescott boating community was on the Salt day stretch.  Go figure.  By the time you pay for gas to the Salt and pay the highway robbery Apache fees, you could easily hire out two or three shuttle drivers!  Plus, your total time away from home would be a lot less and your total time on the river would be a lot greater than the Salt.  Go figure.  Meanwhile, as far as I cal tell, the Verde was running BIGGER than the Salt that particular weekend!

As near as we can speculate, usage is down because of "buzz" about the vegetation and the Childs road.  We discuss these two factors below.  They are legitimate factors and could well be limiting usage forever from this point forward.  There's absolutely no doubt that the vegetation is a genuine concern.  Likewise, if you don't have the right vehicle(s), you could have a world of hurt on that Childs Road.

In some ways this lack of usage is sad, in other ways, it's great.  For those who have the equipment, skills, and experience, the Verde now becomes a rare adventure.  Here's a great chance to test your gear and mettle while seeing hardly any people.  How good is that?  Very good!  Also, from a biological point of view, this means the wildlife basically outnumbers the people!  We had some great river otter sightings--my best ever--got up close and personal with a Mexican Blackhawk and saw eagles in the sky and on the nest.  The Verde is becoming that "wild kingdom" experience we always dreamed it could be back when "riparian restoration" was the buzz phrase for river fans and managers.

Vegetation

I called it "Riparian Revenge."  The riparian vegetation has almost taken over the Verde River.  Willows are sticking their long limbs right out into your face.  Giant reeds are marching their jointed stems all across the river.  The reeds are even functionally blocking the river in at least one location.  The rapids are no longer the main hazard of the Verde River--the vegetation is.

The vegetation has reached the point where I would question the logic and sanity of attempting to take commercial passengers on this river.  The risk of injury has gone exponential since I last saw this stretch of river.  As anyone who runs rivers well knows, vegetation and strainers are killers.  Yes, you can die from foot entrapment or you can die by swimming too long in icy cold water but the vegetation and strainers will kill you quicker and faster and more certainly than any rapid ever could.  One slip up in a Sea of Strainers and you are toast.

I was absolutely amazed at the extent of the vegetation on the Verde River.  It's incredible.  If you don't have a guide like Dexter, there's no way to know the "rabbit holes" to get through some of the stuff.  Even with a guide like Dexter, just knowing which way to go isn't any guarantee of your safety.  I missed a run at Cold Water and wound up in a jungle of strainers and reeds and low hanging willow limbs.  It scared the living daylights out of me and I feared mightily for my personal safety and the gear I paddled.  I was so grateful to escape unharmed and intact from that harrowing area.  If I hadn't known how to handle those limbs, I am certain I would have wrapped the boat and possibly become pinned and injured or worse.My heart rate was higher upon escape than it's been in a really long time!

There are a lot of places where the unsuspecting, casual boater can get into trouble.  There are places that would be difficult and tricky for a full-size, heavily loaded raft to navigate.  One slot in particular is too narrow to row.  It's barely wide enough for a raft to slide through the reeds.  Meanwhile, there's a knarly root ball below this slot that required muscle and skill to miss.  It's a very scary place!

While the vegetation might have made this river much more difficult for river runners, it's a blessing for the creatures and just an absolute great gift for the revival of riparian resources in the Arizona desert. 

Dexter and his volunteers have been working for years to eradicate the tamarisk on this stretch of river.  They've done such a great job that it's difficult to spot a tammy anywhere unless you know where to look.
Meanwhile, the Forest Service was successful in getting the entire corridor adequately fenced.  Cattle are nowhere to be seen along the river.  They used to be thick as the flies that accompany them.  Now they are history.  What this means is that the cattle aren't munching down the willow and cottonwood shoots each spring.  The cattle aren't trampling down the reeds.  This has given free rein to the vegetation to take over.

We suspect the vegetation is one reason there aren't many people on the Verde.  We passed two wrapped and sunken expensive inflatable kayaks.  A canoer lost a well-rigged boat just above our first camp.  The vegetation is for real--it eats boats and it can eat people, too.  If you are heading down this river, be prepared for some hair-raising face-to-face confrontations with Riparian Revenge!

Camp

Dex and Jodi might as well now be Professional Campers.  Between the two of them, they've brought river camping to a high art form.  With a few minor exceptions, there isn't anything I'd suggest to improve their camp rig.  They have put years of experience into their "camp scene" and it ROX!  It's about as 100% as good as camping out of inflatable kayaks could ever be.

If you've ever camped on the river before, you know how painful the logistics can sometimes be.  That wasn't the case with Dex & Jodi's camp.  It was casual and comfortable and there was no hassle whatsoever in rigging or set up.  A lot of wisdom and thought has gone into their camp scene and it showed in the lack of effort required to get it functional and take it apart and rig it back on the boats.  I was very impressed and repeatedly told them so.

Their food menu was superbly simple and very adequate.  Dex grilled porkchops on the coals Saturday night and then we had Mexican on Sunday.  Dex grilled some tamales on the coals Sunday night.  What an elegant touch--those were the best tasting tamales I've ever eaten.

Each boat carried one cooler as well as various other components of the camp scene.  One cooler was for cold stuff--one for dry goods and one for pots & pans and your typical kitchen stuff.  One boat carried the stove, one the toilet and the third boat carried "all the other stuff."  Dex and Jodi even each brought big, old style lawn chairs.

The toilet was the most modern river rig available and functioned perfectly.  Their fire pan rig was really sweet, too.  They used remnants of Forest Service fire survival shelters to put under the fire pans.  These heat resistant shields caught all the overflow ash and left the camp as clean as a whistle.  It was Leave No Trace camping at its best.  Dex has been able to acquire a lot of cool camping gear.  One of the best items is a Partner Stove.  It sells for about $250, plus or minus. While that might seem high, the stove will last forever in a harsh environment.  That type of equipment pays for itself in a heartbeat.

The only shortcoming in the camp scene was the hand wash setup.  That needs some improvement. 

Here's what I would suggest:

Get the latest and greatest handwash setup from Partner Steel.  It used a foot-activated blub to pump water out of a bucket onto your hands so there's nothing to touch.  Put some bleach in the bucket of water and, voila, you have a gem of a setup.

Second, buy a case of food service gloves and bring a box on each trip.  When ever anyone is handling food, have them slip on the disposable food service gloves.  This eliminates any possibility of contaminating food from the bacteria that typically lingers on anyone's finger tips, even AFTER they have washed their hands.

I passed along my other tips to Dex & Jodi directly--a more efficient way of lighting the stove and a better way to keep the coffee grounds out of the coffee.

Those are incredibly minor suggestions for improving their camp scene.  It was great to see a camp scene so effectively and efficiently rigged.  Way to go, Dex & Jodi!  Ya dun good. Yer professional campers!

Boats & Such

Dexter's river program has been blessed with funds to acquire quite an impressive fleet of river boats.  He even has several of the original Riken inflatables purchased by the Forest Service way back in the mid-1980's!  He has a great SOTAR self bailing raft with a superb frame, some canoes and four of the "Fabreezi" boats.

That's what we paddled on this trip--the Fabreezis.  What are they and what's their history? Randy Fabreeze was my friend and room-mate back in the 1988 when I took Dex & Jodi on their first river trip.  Randy was in the process of perfecting his "little dory" at the time and soon turned his attention to the design of a specialized inflatable kayak.  For many years, this custom inflatable was simply known as a "Honker."  It was huge compared to all other inflatables available back then.  Frankly, it continues to be huge compared to all other inflatables available now, too.  It's a gigantic boat, wide-of-beam, huge of tube and a real baggage barge.  Randy designed the boat for extended, multi-day trips on a typical low water desert river.  Over the years since then, the Honker service range has increased to a much wider range of river flow and conditions.
Back in the Old Days, I wouldn't have dared paddle a Honker down the Verde in the 2000+ cfs range we had for this trip.  However, Dexter assured me that the boat would be OK.  While it was OK, it weighed a Blue Ton and was very tough to maneuver.  A boat that big and that heavily loaded simply isn't going to respond like your typical lightweight inflatable kayak. I have no idea how much actual weight each boat carried but it was substantial.  Luckily, I was able to make almost all of my runs and moves.  I missed only a couple of critical moves and luckily escaped no worse for the wear.

Dex used a canoe paddle with his Honker while Jodi and I used breakdown kayak paddles.  Dex made his runs look easy while Jodi and I occasionally struggled to get the boat to behave and go where it was supposed to be.

I'm certain these boats would be a lot more stable and versatile at lower flows.  I'm glad I didn't flip or wrap on this trip.  I feel fortunate!

Randy passed on to the Great Put-In a few years ago.  His widow, Denise, has a special arrangement with the SOTAR company to make the Honkers by request.  They have been named the Fabreezi and they are built about as stout as money can buy.  Dex thinks they are selling for something like $2000.  They are only available by working directly with Denise.  Dex is blessed to be able to have four of these unusual craft in his inventory.  Randy's name and design will almost certainly live forever on the Verde River as long as these boats ply its waters.

The Shuttle

A Verde River shuttle has always been a unique adventure unto itself.  Today, the shuttle has become somewhat more difficult.  Why?  When the deal was reached to decommission the Childs Power Plant, Arizona Public Service no longer provided routine maintenance for the winding, knarly road.  Now, that road is falling ever more into a perpetual state of disrepair.  The cash-strapped Forest Service simply won't have the resources to maintain the road.  Yavapai & Gila Counties will probably put some time and money into maintenance of the Camp Verde-Strawberry portion of the road but most certainly won't maintain the spur that leads down to Childs.

With each passing storm, the road surface erodes a little bit more.  Bedrocks become exposed, the surface becomes a bit rougher and periodic washouts are not a matter of  "if," only "when."  Most any vehicle can still make it down to the river at Childs.  Even low clearance vehicles are get there if the driver is cautious and slow and treads carefully through the periodic rock gardens. 

Heavy-laden low clearance vehicles probably wont' fare well driving back out of Childs.  High clearance is becoming a "most have" for the Childs Road.  Four wheel drive is certainly now recommended and is an absolute necessity in wet weather.  We suspect that sometime soon, four wheel drive will be required to get in and out of Childs.  Who knows when that time will come?  It could be this year or it could still be years away.  We'd bet money on it happening sooner rather than later.

We think the road's condition is already a limiting factor in the usage of the Verde River.  Surprisingly, the cost of a shuttle driver is still ridiculously low--$50!  For the time and aggravation of driving this road, that price really ought to be at least $75 and even $100 is not out of the question.  There are a lot of risks involved in driving a vehicle in and out of Childs.  Fifty dollars seems almost free!

One of the biggest risks to the Childs shuttle is now traffic.  The newfound popularity of Fossil Creek has generated a huge influx of vehicles.  Many of the drivers of these vehicles are thrill-seeking young people and it's safe to assume there is a fairly high percentage of impaired drivers as well.  Dexter has seen as many as 300 vehicles in a single day on the Strawberry side of this shuttle.  Who knows how many of them drove in from the Camp Verde side?  Weekends will always be especially treacherous, especially as the weather warms.

On this trip, we traveled out the Strawberry side.  I was once again amazed at how narrow and dangerous this portion of road appears to be.  In most places, two vehicles cannot pass side-by-side.  One vehicle must wait for the other.  Likewise, there are seemingly countless blind curves and ridiculously steep, unprotected dropoffs.  I was really glad to be sitting in a beefy Ford F-350 with airbags!

As is a time-honored archaic custom, some foolish people still continue to be penny-wise and pund foolish by driving their own shuttle.  That means that drop off their gear at Beasley and then caravan vehicles down to Childs, driving one vehicle back out.  It also means they then have to drive all the way back down to Beasley to get that vehicle after their trip is finished.  I'm guessing this process now takes at least 3 hours and probably more like four hours.  Is it worth the cost savings?  No way!  How often do people get to boat the Verde?  Danged few times!  What's a few extra bucks per person to pay for shuttle driver?  Chump change. 

I have to quietly chuckle at people who subject themselves to such abuse by driving their own shuttles.  It's such a waste of time.

My advice to anyone planning a Verde River trip:

1) Make certain you have appropriate vehicles. 
2) Double check your spare tire and jacking equipment.
3) Hire a shuttle driver--preferably one who knows the road.
4) Don't overload your vehicle at the take out!
5) Don't go if the road is wet.
6) Expect a long, slow drive out.
7) Allow extra time for the unforeseen.

Wrap Up

I've been involved with the Verde River for 30 years. For more than 20 years, the Verde River was the focal point of my entire life. The river pretty much defined me to those who knew me. Just about everything I did revolved in some way around the Verde River and the issues facing it. I have no idea how many Verde trips I did during those years. There would really be no way to count them.

Before I retired in January 2001, the Yavapai County Board of Supervisors gave me a special award recognizing my efforts on behalf of the Verde River. The newspaper ran me on the front page and called me Old Man River. I'll always be proud of that name.

Things change and time passes. People move on. Water flows downhill. It's been along time since I was on a Verde River trip. I can't even remember when it might have been. Many years ago, that's for sure. All those efforts on behalf of the Verde were once the major focus of my whole life have now become distant memories, quaint footnotes in the relentless cavalcade of Arizona history.

Traveling on this Verde River trip was a piece of sweet nostalgia. It really brought everything full circle for me. It was a wonderful and delightful adventure.

It was almost 22 years to the day when I took Dex and Jodi on their very first river trip in March of 1988. To see and appreciate what those two wonderful people have done since then was truly a heart-warming experience. I am so very proud of them. They are awesome! Dexter is now truly Old Man River in every way and together, Jodi and Dexter have a most incredible relationship with each other and their beloved Verde River.

This trip was sweet vindication of all the decades of effort to "restore" the riparian of the Verde River. It was so tremendous to see the awesome willow forests lining the river banks. It was my first trip ever when I didn't see any cattle in the riparian zone. Riparian rocks! I was dazzled and delighted to see the riparian in such great condition.

The Verde River is a beautiful gem of the Arizona desert. It is a glorious resource. Today, more than ever, it shines forth with a delicious glow of spring green amid a prickly, stickly, snake-studded desert of rugged cliffs, canyons and volcanic crevices. Creatures abound, people are few, risks await the unprepared, magical whitewater continues to flourish and, above all, The Verde Lives, free flowing and Wild & Scenic forever.

Thank You, Dex & Jodi, for all that you have done, all that you do, and all that you will do. You both are making a historic contribution to the current and future conditions of The Verde River. We are so proud of you. God Bless & God Speed!

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Verde River Trip Flow Levels

Here are two hydrographs to show the flow for our Verde River trip.  We put on the water Saturday morning, March 27 and took off March 29.  You will need to factor in the flow of West Clear Creek to get a pretty good idea of the flow from Beasley Flats to Childs.

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Grand Falls has peaked

Grand Falls is within a whisker of its peak right now. The next few days are your last chance to see Grand Falls in its full finery. Grand Falls is easily one of Arizona's most amazing hydrological and geological wonders. Yeah, it's not as vast as the Grand Canyon and not as red as the red rocks but it has a special uniqueness that's unequaled and without peer anywhere. When there's a huge gusher falling over the precipice, you've really got to see it to believe it.

This week is totally Prime Time to go to Grand Falls. It's truly worth taking the time and trouble to do so. We hope some of our Arizona blog readers avail themselves of this opportunity. You'll never forget it! Just GO!

Monday, March 22, 2010

Verde may be past its peak

Predicting river runoff is a fickle fantasy fraught with failure.  We've been thinking the Verde River had yet another ace up its snowpack sleeve.  We've been thinking that the Verde's crescendo climax was yet to come. Now we think we're wrong.  Today, we think the Verde has seen its seasonal peak(s) and it's all downhill from here (no pun intended).

What changed our mind?  Lack of snow, that's what did it.  We set out Sunday morning to go snowshoeing.  We foolishly believed there would be plenty of snow beginning at the Rocky Park exit and increasing at Schnebly Hill, becoming downright deep near Munds Park and we believed we would have plenty of snow to enjoy every which way but loose.  We were wrong.

It would have been impossible to snowshoe at either Rocky Park or Schnebly Hill.  There was perhaps enough snow in the shadows near Fox Ranch but it was paltry indeed.  Munds Park had more snow in the open areas that it did under the trees.  We decided to turn around and fuggetaboutit at Willard Springs.  Luckily, there appeared to be enough snow near Willard to give it a try.  As long as we avoided the many barren spots, we found enough snow to enjoy on our shoes.

We enjoyed snowshoeing alongside the little seasonal stream that eventually provides about half of the flow through Munds Canyon.  We both realized the Verde had already shot its wad.  I realized that I have become too dependent on watching the US NRCS SNOTEL data.  Yes, it's true, there's still a lot of snow at White Horse, Happy Jack and Baker Butte.  But those three data sites don't a snowpack make.  Yes, there's still a ba-zillion acre-feet of runoff yet to come off the hill.  No, there's not enough snow left to create that much-anticipated crescendo climax.  Barring a warm rain or a series of 75 degrees days on The Rim, the remainder of the runoff should be an orderly  event with progressively smaller peaks.  The good news for river runners is that the baseflow on the Verde should be raftable and kayakable for at least two and probably three to four more weeks. Eventually, the water on the day stretch will run practically clear as spring water. Toward the true tail end of the runoff season, the water should be noticeably warmer and near crystal clean. It will be a match made in Heaven for modern era river runners, most of whom have never seen the Verde is such a state of transcendental fluvial glory.

We're appended two 120-day flow charts for the Verde at Camp Verde and also the Verde into Horseshoe. The first peak was that awesome late January event that laid the foundation for this incredible snow season.  The second peak took place at the end of the first week of March.  The third peak was logged just before the Spring Equinox.  It's now reasonable to expect subsequent blips in this year's hydrograph to be progressively lower.

The Beaver Creek system is pretty well completely finished.  Most of the action will come from Sycamore Canyon, Oak and West Clear Creeks.  West Clear, in particular, should hold flows on the day stretch remain runnable well into April.

We were both disappointed in the available snow "up top," as we affectionately call The Rimlands.  But it is what it is.  At the very least, we have enjoyed a truly spectacular snow show this year.  It's one for the record books and one we will long remember.  Viva Verde!

Friday, March 19, 2010

Rosevelt at record high levels

As we noted somewhere in our blogosphere, Roosevelt is at record high levels.  LBR Nancy Mc. sent along a link to an East Valley newspaper story about it.  Click here to read the story.  The video above is embedded in the story.  Since it's a YouTube video, we felt we had fair use ability to embed it here, too.  Charlie E. even has a few seconds in the video.  Thanks, Nancy!

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Mid March Snow & Water Report

Amazing things are happening in the Arizona snowpack and streamflow.

First, let's take a general look at the snow.  You all know from the post below that the Snow Water Equivalent is in great shape.  The depth of snow has been shrinking quickly in the past week.  Duh, the temps have been on the rise!  The phenomenal thing about this year's snowpack is that the Snow Water HAS NOT been shrinking.
Some SNOTEL sites actually show their snow water RISING while the snowpack is SHRINKING!  Explain that one to me!

Even at sites that show declines in the snow water, the loss is trivial.  Take White Horse Lake south of Williams.  This location is notorious for either having very little snow or seeing it's snow disappear very quickly, especially less than two weeks from April.  Well,  Whitehorse is still sitting on 13.5 inches of snow water!  If this was a poker game, White Horse would be in "fat city!"  In the past week, White Horse has only lost 1.3 inches of its snow water.  Meanwhile its snowpack has shrunk substantially, falling 15 inches from 49 to 34 inches.  Gee, White Horse still has almost THREE FEET of snow.  As I said: AMAZING!

The White Horse Lake snowpack drains directly into Sycamore Canyon and shows up at the Verde Clarkdale gauge.  This morning, that gauge is really pumping right along at 1650 cfs.  That's the highest reading of any Verde tributary in the system.  Granted it is technically a "Mainstem" reading but wink, wink, we all know that 99.999% of that flow is coming from Sycamore Canyon.  Even West Clear Creek's flow pales in comparison to Sycamore's output right now.  West Clear is running 1230.

So, think about it--There's still almost three feet of snow containing well over a foot of pure water sitting up top at White Horse Lake.  The flows in the Upper Verde (Sycamore Canyon confluence to Oak Creek Confluence) are going higher--possibly a LOT higher.  Due to all of the riparian vegetation in this stretch, it is probably NOT a good time to put a boat on the water.  The current will be fast and pushy and potentially deadly.  As much as we'd like to paddle this stretch right now, we're going to enjoy it from the safety and comfort of the shoreline!

The story is the same pretty much everywhere in the Verde watershed.  The snow depth is shrinking but the water content is holding essentially steady.  Bizarre but true.In the past week, Happy Jack's snow has slimmed from 62 to 48 inches while its water has only downticked from 18.5 to 17.8 inches.  Gee, ONLY four feet of snow still left at Happy Jack a mere 13 days from April.  Gee....!

Now for the real puzzler: Baker Butte.  Baker's snow depth has declined ten inches in teh past week, dropping from 88 to 78 inches--a mere six and a half feet.  Get this--in the same time, Baker's water content has RISEN from 26.4 to 26.8 inches!  I hope Charlie or Dino can explain this anomaly to me. Puzzling and amazing.  Baker's snowpack is a great indicator for the upper reaches of the West Clear Creek watershed.
What Baker's snowpack and water content says to me is that West Clear will soon be the star of the show.
Once White Horse lets go of most of its snow, the Baker area will take center stage and West Clear will really be pumping some serious water.  Will it be enough to float some mobile homes downstream?  Good question.

The Salt hasn't cut loose yet.  No surprise there.  Baldy's snow depth shrunk from 61 to 48 inches but the water content ROSE from 15.9 to 16.2 inches.  Even though Baldy's daytime high temp has been in the upper 50's lately, its overnight lows are WELL below freezing, 18 last night and as low as 13 in the past week.  So, there's not much chance of that snowpack saying Bye-Bye anytime soon.  Even without the high elevation snow, the Salt is running a real nice 1600+ on the day stretch and over 2000 into Roosevelt.  It's definitely Jimmy Buffet Boating over there on the Salt right now.

The Gila is really doing well with almost 1,000 near Red Rock, New Mexico.  All the other readings are nicely plump.  San Carlos reservoir is a little over 25% full and has a real nice upslope trendline.  Will it fill?  Probably not.  But it's going to get a LOT more water before it's all over.  Here's an oddity for ya--the Gila down by Goodyear, Arizona is running nearly 8,000 cfs.  That's not a typo.  Meanwhile, they are actually letting out 2750 cfs BELOW Painted Rock Reservoir.  How weird is that?  VERY weird!  There will actually be some substantial water making it to the Sea of Cortez this year.

The Little Colorado is holding steady but the upstream reaches are showing signs of beginning to flow.  Grand Falls is over 500 cfs.  I'm pretty certain it will peak between 1000 and 2000 in the next few weeks.  We're going to wait until it's at least 1,000 before making the obligatory trek out there onto The Rez.

Let's close this synopsis with a brief speculation about the upcoming weather.  Take a look at the Climate Prediction Center's various forecasts.  You will see they are calling for above average temps and normal or below average precipitation.  Pay particular attention to the 6-10 day precip and the 8-14 day precip.  They both show below average precip.  Well, there is this magical switch hidden up there in the sky.  Along about April 1, some unseen hand flips that switch and Arizona's precipitation is over, done, finished, kaput.  Whatever we have on April 1 is pretty much what we're going to live with for the remainder of the "off season."  Those big honking storms simply don't come to visit after April 1.  Since the next two weeks are progged to be below normal precip, I'd have to speculate that we've got all the snow we're going to get.

Meanwhile, there's a couple of little cold fronts progged to pass through the area this weekend and also next week.  That will slow down the melt and hold the snowpack tight for awhile longer yet, especially in the White Mountains and Salt watershed. OK, class, you know where this is going.

Meanwhile, what happens in April and beyond in Arizona?  It gets progressively warmer and then hot and hotter.  That's simply the way it is in Arizona--the temps gradually ramp up until their summertime crescendo in the high hundred million melt your brain range.

The Climate Prediction Center is pretty much pegging the Southwest for above normal temps, as you can see for yourself.  So...what does this mean?  Simple, it means we're probably going to dodge the dreaded proverbial warm rainstorm on the snowpack.  That means we probably won't have any catastrophic melt down of the snowpack.  The pack should continue to come off in an orderly fashion, peaking early on the Verde in early to mid-April and on the Salt from mid to late April.  Chances and odds continue to be very good that the Salt will be raftable AFTER the permit season ends May 15.  The Verde should continue to be raftable for several weeks, possibly towards the end of April.

Well, there you have it.  We hope this helps.  Have a great day, get out on the river and enjoy Many Cheers!  jp

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

March 15 US NRCS Basin Outlook Report

The eagerly awaited US NRCS March 15 "BOR" is out and it's awesome!  All watersheds except the Salt are reporting new record Snow Water Equivalent numbers!  This is HUGE!  The graphics say it all. The bottom graphic is streamflow.

Monday, March 8, 2010

The Best Winter

They should have given Arizona's weather an Oscar last night!  This winter is truly an award-winning performance.  "Ladies and gentlemen, the winner of The Best Winter is....(pause) ARIZONA!!!!"
Yep, Ol' Airy Zonie strides onto the stages and takes a bow.  The audience gives her a standing ovation.  Tears flow and wails of joy fill the room.  Yea, verily, Arizona finally gets center stage.  How sweet!

I didn't write a water and snow update this weekend because I was waiting for last night's results.  No, NOT the Oscar results--Arizona's latest storm results.  This time the NWS weather wonks nailed it.  They said 6-10 inches of snow and that's pretty much what they got.  Baldy and Baker Butte got more but who's complaining--I'd rather have the Wonks be wrong on the LOW side of their prediction than the high side.

Here's the latest news, hot off the press:  White Horse Lake gained 8ths of an inch of water to sit at 13.4 while its snow is now 40 inches, a gain of seven in the past 24 hours.

Happy Jack's water is at 16.8, a gain of six tenths while its snow is now 51 inches, a gain of five.

Baker Butte was the star of last night's snow show--it's water is now precisely TWO FEET (24 inches) and, get this, it's snowpack is a truly WHOPPING EIGHTY INCHES (80 inches), a gain of 11 overnight.  WOW!

Baker outperformed both Baldy and Maverick Fork over in the White Mountains.  Baldy gained 9ths of an inch of water to sit at 14.9 and picked up 12 inches of snow for a 58 inch deep snowpack.  Remember, it's colder over there so 9ths produces more snow than Baker's 1.2 inch water gain.

Maverick Fork actually has more water than Baldy--17.1 inches on an identical gain of 9ths.  Maverick produced less snow, picking up only 7 inches for a pack of 55 inches.

One sort of odd thing to think about here, folks, is the comparison between Happy Jack and the Twin Stars of the White Mountains.  Happy Jack has MORE water content than Baldy!  The snow looks good but it's the water that really counts during runoff season.  "Show me the water," is the mantra of resource managers.
Well, Happy Jack is ABOVE Baldy.  Imagine that.  WOW.

OK, now let's move on to the streamflow synopsis, shall we?  There's some great water out there, perhaps a little TOO great for some people.  The Verde at Camp Verde is running a knarly 7210 cfs this morning while 9400 cfs is pumping into the reservoir.  WOW!  All of the Verde tribs are alive and well, too.  Believe it or not, the biggest flow is coming from Sycamore Canyon, even though White Horse is holding tight to its 40-inch snowpack.  There's over 1600 cfs at Clarkdale this morning.  That's righteous.  Oak Creek is a thousand, Beaver Creek below the confluence at McGuireville is almost a thousand.  Life is good, Buckaroos!

The Salt isn't anywhere near the Verde today. The day stretch is running 3160 cfs--ho, hum....(HA!)
There's 2650 going into Roosevelt.  The Salt headwaters and tribs don't show anything to make me think the Salt will rise much above these levels.

There are some intriguing flows elsewhere in the region.  The Gila headwaters have really come alive with Redrock, New Mexico flows nearly 1,900 cfs.  Meanwhile, the Little Colorado is finally coming back from a long hibernation.  There's 736 at Woodruff, nearly 400 at Holbrook and 300 in the Chevelon Fork below Wildcat Canyon.  Jack Canyon Creek near Winslow has about 300 and there's 500 at Winslow.  YAHOO!
Grand Falls fans better wax their skateboards and boogie on out there soon.  While Grand Falls will run a lot bigger later, it's such an awesome sight, why not go several times this year?  If enough people go there, maybe it will finally get its own Zip Code.

For you REAL desert rats (people who live in The Old Pueblo AKA: Tucson) you must be dancing in the streets.  Both Tanque Verde and the Rillito have 500 cfs right smack through the middle of the city.  How good is that?  VERY GOOD.

There's such a thing as "too much of a good thing."  Here's an example.  Some of our Dear Friends work for the Forest Service and actually manage the Wild & Scenic Verde River.  They are scheduled to depart this morning from Camp Verde on a five-day river trip down to Sheep Bridge.  Hum, do you think they will really go for it at 7000+ cfs?  I sure hope not.  One mishap in water than high and somebody could die.  I've kayaked the Verde too many times to remember.  Once a partner and I kayaked from Beasley Flats all the way to Horseshoe Dam in a single day.  The flow?  A mere 8,000 cfs.  It was like a bullet ride and there were hazards everywhere.  It was a great flow to make that many miles in a single day but it's not a flow I'd like to have a raft afloat on.  Nope, NO WAY.  You could get swept into a strainer in a heartbeat and no amount of skill or strength could possibly save your arse.  The current speed is simply too high and too pushy.  I once kayaked from Camp Verde to Childs on 45,000 cfs.  It only took a little less than 2 hours.  So, from personal experience, I can tell you there's not a whole lot of difference between 8,000 ad 45,000.  More volume, obviously, a little faster current speed but the end results are essentially the same.  The water's WAAAY too pushy, way too dangerous and people in heavily laden rafts should avoid it.  Empty catarafts?  Well, that's apples to oranges with a five day trip.  Empty cats could navigate 8,000 cfs and have a hoot.  Big barge boats?  Not so much.

Well, that's about all I have this morning.  Congratulations to Ol' Airy Zonie for having The Best Winter.  After all these years of drought, you sure deserve the spotlight.  Enjoy it!  jp

Thursday, March 4, 2010

March 1st US NRCS water report

These two graphics represent the meat of the March 1st "Basin Outlook Report" issued by the US NRCS.  Pretty cool, huh?

The beat goes on...and on...and ON!

Geeze, how good can this get?  I just did a quick check of Baker Butte and it's GAINED ONE INCH of water since I wrote the blog post below!!!!  It's at its high for this Water Year--22.6 inches of pure water sitting in a snowpack that's 71 inches deep as of this morning.  This is INCREDIBLE!