Stop the presses

This just in from our most faithful blog reader in Flagstaff--Flag is progged to get 8-14 inches more snow in the next 24-36 hours!  WOW--this is wonderfully wild in a good way.

I cued up the QPF graphic and, yes, it's true, there's enough water progged all across the Rimlands and the White Mountains to verify this snowfall prediction.  I'd bet there's simply no way any part of the Rimlands will get LESS than six inches.  And there's a high probability that the Rimlands will get MORE than 12 inches!  How good is that?  Meanwhile, the Salt watershed (AKA The White Mountains) will almost assuredly get upwards of a foot more snow ALL ACROSS the ENTIRE snowpack!  Is that wild or what?

What does this mean?  Well, regular readers know that the existing snowpack has been consolidating and compacting.  The famous SWE (Snow Water Equivalent) has remained basically the same.  This is a good thing--a VERY good thing.  Meanwhile, the existing snowpack, even as good as it is, remains a tad bit vulnerable to unseasonable warmth or a warm rain.

What's happening with this incoming snow event is the equivalent of throwing a nice down comforter over the existing snowpack.  It's going to insulate and protect that hardened existing snowpack.  The layer that's going to get put down in the next couple of days won't be compacted and consolidated.  Therefore, it can take some heat--it can take some rain and it will shield the existing snowpack from the affects of those events.

What this will do in terms you and I can understand is simple--it's going to protect an already outrageous snowpack and virtuallty assure a kick anatomy river running season that could easily extend well into May on the Salt and easily ALL of March on the Verde.  I mean this is totally awesome.

Now that the existing snowpack has some decent protection, it's going to take much more than a garden variety low intensity "warm storm" to knock off that snowpack.  Granted, a huge, high intensity warm rain will wipe a snowpack clean. but that's not what we are seeing in the prevailing weather pattern.  We're seeing REAL cold arctic air colliding with El Nino-driven water vapor and we're seeing it collect right smack at Ground Zero for Arizona River Runners!  How good is this?  REAL GOOD!

I will keep this blog updated on the final snowfall totals and we shall see just how the water equates to the snow density, etc.  In the meantime, let's hear a stirring rendition of that 1929 classic: "Happy Days Are Here Again!"

So long sad times
Go long bad times
We are rid of you at last

Howdy gay times
Cloudy gray times
You are now a thing of the past

Happy days are here again
The skies above are clear again
So let's sing a song of cheer again
Happy days are here again

Altogether shout it now
There's no one
Who can doubt it now
So let's tell the world about it now
Happy days are here again

Your cares and troubles are gone
There'll be no more from now on
From now on ...

Happy days are here again
The skies above are clear again
So, Let's sing a song of cheer again

Happy times
Happy nights
Happy days
Are here again!

Weekly Water & Snow Report

Greetings, River Rats, it's time once again for another thrilling episode of The Weekly Water & Snow Report!

Hey, Rats, it's a FUN report so pull up a chair, pop some corn and chow down on some meaty stuff!

Let's get to the best news first--The US NRCS mid-February report was released this week.  It states in black and white that the Verde River streamflow is progged to 291% of average and the Salt's will be 238% of average!  WHA--WHOOO!

Meanwhile, the Verde snowpack is over 200% of average and the Salt's is 220% of average.  In January, the Salt received OVER 300% of average snowfall!!!!  Get this tidbit--The Little Colorado snowpack right now is 357% of average.  Hey, River Rats, that's ASTRONOMICAL!

OK, now that the euphoria has worn off a little bit, let's take a look at reality--the current conditions.

All of the boatable stretches of the Verde River are in great shape for this time of year.  The Verde above Clarkdale is purring right along at 250 cfs.  Oak Creek is 150.  That great stretch from Montezuma Castle to Camp Verde is 175.  Camp Verde's White Bridge is 950 and there's 1600 going into Horseshoe.  Even the Verde below Bartlettt Dam is runnable @ 550 right now.

As usual, it's too cold for the Salt snowpack to loosen up much so the day stretch is running "only" 625 but there's 965 going into Roosevelt.  The Gila would be the hot spot for adventurous boaters.  There's 850 at Redrock, 500 at Duncan and 704 near Safford.  That's EXCELLENT!

OK, how 'bout current snow conditions.  Since our report last week, there's been basically no change.
Baker Butte snow depth is the same at 63 inches.  The water in the snow rose to 19.5 from 19.2.  Happy Jack's water remained identical at 14.1 even though the snow consolidated from 46 to 43 inches.  Baldy's snowpack shrunk from 54 to 45 inches but the snow water remained precisely the same at 13.5 inches.  White Horse Lake shrunk from 37 to 31 but the water luckily shrunk only two tenths of an inch, dropping from 11.7 to 11.5 inches.

All the low snow in the south deserts is gone--Sabino is back to baseflow at 37 cfs.  Grand Falls remains the same as last week, roughly 250 cfs.  Never fear, Grand Falls is gonna be cookin' this spring.  Better book your view spot now!

Well, that's 'bout it, River Rats.  Now you know why the first box we packed in our Big Truck yesterday was the one filled with our river gear.  LET'S GO BOATING!

PS--I just uploaded the 19-page US NRCS Feb. 15 snow report.  You can use this shortened link to see it:  http://bit.ly/nrcs0215

Mid February water review

Tis Valentine's Day and tis a wonderful time to review the water conditions in Arizona.  Let's start way down south.  Sabino Creek outside Tucson is running 279 cfs.  That doesn't sound like much but that would be incredibly beautiful water in Sabino Canyon, especially since the temps are in the upper 60's right now with clear spring blue skies.  WOW, that's about as good as it gets in Tucson in February.  When I moved to Arizona, I arrived on Valentine's Day of 1979.  It wwas a big water year similar to this one and every little creek and wash was running.  HA!  I thought that's the way it ALWAYS was.  Dummie!

The Upper Gila river has a real nice baseflow in it right now.  Readings vary from 400 to 500+ cfs.  This will be one of the few years that will be a great boating season. 

The Salt and Verde have tightened up.  The day stretch of the Salt is running a little less than 500 while the White Bridge to Beasley on the Verde is running near 700, a great canoe level.  The Verde into Horseshoe is less than 1000 and the Salt into Roosevelt is on the high side of 800.

The Little Colorado out at Grand Falls is probably running about 250 cfs. 

What's happening with the snowpack?  Baker Butte Summit has over 5 feet of snow with a 19 inch water equivalent. Happy Jack is a whisker shy of 4 feet with 14 inches of water content.  The two Baldy sites in the Upper Salt are running about 54 inches of snow with a 13 inch water content.  The real surprises are White Horse Lake and Fry in the Verde.  White Horse has 3 feet of snow and fully one third of that is water--12 inches! That's HUGE for White Horse.  Why?   Well, it means the Upper Verde below Sycamore Canyon is going to run great this spring--really, really GREAT!  The Fry site has about 4 feet of snow and 15 inches of water.  That's an indicator of how nice Oak Creek will run.  Chances are all of the Verde's tributaries will be boatable this year for a protracted period of time.

This warm weather will bring off the low snow--that's what the Sabino readings are telling us.  The high snow is still in no danger of going anyplace--it's still too cold at night. Even though Baldy's daytime temp has been in the mid-40's, teh overnight lows have been dropping down to 10-12 degrees.  Nah, that particular snowpack ain't goin' nowhere!

I'd reckon the water will start showing a steady rise with this heat wave in Arizona, mostly due to low elevation snow.  We will keep a close eye on how the snowpack behaves and probably do weekly updates from here on out until it's obvious that the snow is mostly gone.

One of The World's Most Dangerous Destinations?

After the Super Bowl tonight, I was idly reading the internet news.  A FOX News story entitled "The World's Most Dangerous Destinations" caught my eyes.  I figured it would be a typical FOX Chicken Little article about how the falling sky could kill you or something like that.

Anyway, I was reading hte article, nodding my head, "YES."  The article was about truly dangerous places like deep in the heart of Indonesia and on the flanks of the active volcano down in the Caribbean and about Mexico and that really wild and dangerous place Vanuatu and I am going, "YEAH, they sure got that right."

And then, LO & BEHOLD, the #5 Most Dangerous Destination is Northeastern Arizona!

WHAT?  HUH?  SAY WHAT?  Honestly & truly, I was stunned and speechless and totally wide awake.  I mean the other four places are truly deep dark holes of almost certain death.  But Northeastern Arizona?  You've got to be kidding.

In typical FOX style here is what they said.  This is the whole statement--nothing edited:

"Northeastern Arizona
Of course, when it comes down to it, nowhere on the planet is truly safe. A perfect example of this can be found in Arizona, which is known for its consistently arid climate, but where snow and rain storms in the northeastern part of the state were so severe in late January that President Obama declared a state of emergency for the area. Members of the Hopi Tribe and Navajo Nation as well as their livestock were stranded by the deep snow and mud. Cows were reportedly seen standing dead in the snow in some areas. Citizens needing medical care were airlifted out and likewise, supplies were being airlifted in, with more than 1,500 people needing assistance. As of this writing emergency repairs had shut down part of Arizona 89A between Sedona and Flagstaff. FEMA, who coordinated rescue and relief efforts on the ground, dispensed safety advice good to remember during any cold climate travel, including watching for signs of frostbite – “loss of feeling and white or pale appearance in extremities such as fingers, toes, ear lobes, and the tip of the nose” – as well as signs of hypothermia, which include, “uncontrollable shivering, memory loss, disorientation, incoherence, slurred speech, drowsiness, and apparent exhaustion.”

You can click here to read the full story.

Geeze.

Amp up The Stuff

Our trip prep right now revolves around pre-packing stuff.  We are genetically related to The Joad Family.  You remember them from John Steinbeck's "Grapes of Wrath."  Well, they are our Role Models for packing for a trip.  They set a really high bar and pretty much wrote the book of standards and procedures for carrying stuff out on the highway looking for adventure.  We think fond thoughts of them everytime we get ready to put the pedal to the metal. 

If Tom Joad was alive today, he'd be a New Age motivational speaker giving high dollar seminars called "Trip Planning, Zen & Now," or "The Fine Art & Science of Stuffing Stuff."  Heck, I'd pay my $295 to attend!  I'm sure such seminars would be a real hit in Sedona.  I can imagine the headlines now, "Now Reincarnated, Tom Joad and his award-winning lecture series, "Hit The Road to a Higher You."  As long as he didn't have me sit in a sweat lodge for hours after a long fast, count me in.

What all of this packing means is that we are prowling our boxes and shelves of stuff trying to find more stuff that we can carry more hundreds of miles so that it can sit on a shelf someplace else just like it has here for the past couple of years.  You know, a person just can't have too much stuff and the more stuff that sits around and never gets used, the better.  Yeah, I know a lot of people say "If you haven't used it in a year, get rid of it."  But what fun is that.  It doesn't do a single thing to create a Magic Mountain of stuff and heck it could lead to a naked-looking basement, too.  Bare shelves?  NEVER!  Empty storage boxes?  NEVER!  The more stuff we can have sitting around idly doing nothing to contribute to our quality of lives, THE BETTER.  Long live useless stuff, right Tom?

Some Salt news

Loyal Blog Reader Nancy McC. sent along the photo at left.  It was sent to here by Don S. a guy who has pretty much inherited the Title of Mister Salt.  Anyway, the scene here is looking downstream on River Right toward Cibecue Creek.  This land is on the White Mountain Apache Reservation.  It shows the damage to the road that hugs the Salt River bank and crosses the creek.  Obviously, the recent storm rendered it impassible.  Whether it gets rehabilitated by the Tribe is rather doubtful.  Most of their permit income is generated on the stretch of river above this creek crossing.  Chances are The Tribe will leave it "as is." I'm going to go on record here with this fearless prediction: "The Salt River Day Stretch is going to be a complete Zoo Scene this year."  The Day Stretch Road is going to resemble Loop 101 during rush hour--one weekends it will approach total gridlock.  Dehydrated tempers will flare and road rage (such as it can be on this road) is almost a guaranteed certainty.  

I don't think I'd want to be anywhere near this place on a weekend or during Spring Break.  The Apaches don't have enough law enforcement manpower to maintain order there this year.  It's going to be mayhem!  Be forewarned.

One thing you can also take to the bank--unless an unusually high elevation warm rain washes away the snowpack in the White Mountains---the Salt River whitewater stretch is going to be going strong throughout the month of April and will almost assuredly be raftable well into May!

The Baldy SNOTEL shows an amazing piece of data today--the snowpack has SHRUNK A FOOT while the Snow Water Equivalent HAS RISEN AN INCH!!!  This is a rare anomaly, one not seen in drought-stricken Arizona for many a year.  Click here to see the data yourself. 

Bear in mind that the Salt River's snowpack is at a much higher overall elevation that the Verde River's snowpack.  Typically, the overnight temperatures throughout the bulk of the Salt snowpack will keep it frozen for much longer.  Likewise, when there is a huge snowpack and one that is essentially turning into a mini-glacier, the snowpack itself become self-insulating.  So, even if there is a VERY warm day (or days) it isn't going to really dent the snowpack until the seasonal cycles bring about much warmer night time temperatures.

In the Old Days, the average annual peak of the Salt was April 18.  This year (barring that drenching warm rain) I'd expect to see the 2010 peak flow occur even later than April 18.  It's shaping up to be a great year--shirtsleeve and sunscreen rafting ahead!

To shoe or not to shoe?

As I sit here on a snowy Idaho Falls Sunday morning, my thoughts turn to snow shoeing.  We both love stomping around in the snow.  It's delightful fun.  Note on the left side of your screen the embedded Twitter account.  (You can click on this embed to see a lot more of the recent Tweets.)  I am using this Twitter mostly to throw up some shortened links to various data sites from Arizona.  Eventually (perhaps) I will create some way to organize them and make them all more accessible.  For now, it's the best I can do.

Anyway, I have been looking at the snowpack down on the Rimlands.  It's a great snowpack.  What strikes me is that the snow is consolidating.  It's water content (called "snow water equivalent" SWE) is remaining essentially steady while the depth of snow itself is shrinking.  At Happy Jack, for example, the snow has shrunk 15% while the SWE has remained nearly unchanged.  If this trend continues, teh snow will turn brick hard on the surface crust.  Such a snowpack could be a real treat for snowshoeing.  The shoes would prevent "postholing" into the deep snow below the crust but the crust would make for easy walking without having to break trail through deep powder or new snow.

I remember one such winter in Flagstaff back in the mid-1980's.  Late in the season--March, as I recall, we were able to go out on Highway 180 and goof off in the aspens.  We skied at will blissfully anywhere we wished without having to worry about breaking trail.  The snow crust was slicker than snot, of course, and you dared not step on the snow with a cross country ski boot.  It was some of the most fun I can recall goofing off in the snow in the mid-1980's.

Hum...well, those memories and today's snowpack data have me wondering and pondering whether to take our snow shoe rigging down to Arizona.  I am sure we are going to be watching this data much more closely than normal as the weeks ahead unfold.  It could be a real unique opportunity.  We shall see!

Wet spring in store?

The two graphics here are from the NWS Climate Prediction Center.  Both the One Month and the Three month computer models are showing above average precipitation in the Southwest Deserts.  I would suspect this means that periodic storm fronts will move in out of the Pacific bringing a mix of snow & rain through March and mostly rain from late March onward.

It's a good thing we will be down there this spring--this is ideal habitat for the profuse tumbleweeds that are certain to explode from our disturbed soil.  This will be our first chance to attempt to deal with them.
We really are clueless as to how to proceed with the weeds.  It's definitely going to be our biggest challenge with the Arizona property.

The other nice thing about the long-range climate prediction is that we probably won't be dealing with Sahara-Style dust.  Dust is a fact of life in the Southwest but it's always nice when a wet pattern can knock back the dust for a few weeks.  Hopefully, it won't be a mud pit either.

We're thinking about bricking a much larger area at the entrance to the Straw House.  The soil will be a lot easier to work if it is a wet pattern.  Anyway, that's what "they" say it's going to be like during our visit--we shall see if "they" are correct.  (Remember--you can click on the small graphics to see the large versions.)

Crank it up

Gee, what a difference a month can make!  We put this blog to bed four weeks ago yesterday and, poof, now it's rising up from its slumber as a new chapter begins.  About 5 weeks from now we will be back in Old Airy Zonie, once again.  Time to don our Snowbird Persona and crank this blog back to life.

We will maintain dual blogs for the foreseeable future.  The Daily News blog is a great venue for just about everything that's happening in our lives.  This blog is going to be a tad more "Arizona Specific."

We are already very excited about being about to be Double Dipper Snowbirds this season.  How good is that?  This trip promises to be a whole lot more fun that the last trip which was 100% all work and no play.  We can promise you there will be a lot of play in the upcoming trip.  There's stuff we will have to do to the property but it won't be as all encompassing as the Nov-Dec. trip was.

It's exciting to know, for example, that our internet connection is there waiting for us.  The power is live and turned on and ready to roll.  The propane tank and heater and waiting for the turn of a valve and the click of a switch.  This time we will be able to tow the Nissan down, too.  We'll take our bicycles, river gear, hiking stuff, cast iron inventory, BBQ and a whole lot more.  YAAA--WHOOO!

One of the biggest potential joys of being in Arizona this spring is the possibility of a gang-busters whitewater rafting season.  There's a HUGE snowpack sitting in the High Country down there right now.  If a tropical storm doesn't come along with a big warm rain and wash all that snow off, the runoff season in the Salt & Verde Rivers will be one to remember for a long time.  There are a ba-jillion rafting, canoeing and kayaking possibilities for this upcoming high water season.  We're really looking forward to it.

It should be a pretty danged good wild flower year, too, so the hiking possibilities are very exciting.
I've already put in a call to Max C. the manager of the Verde River Greenway to see if we can volutneer to update the canoe guide we prepared in early 2007.  Nancy McC. and I spent some time in the Middle Verde but the water was SOOO darned low we didn't get much accomplished.  Maybe we can remedy that this year during her Spring Break. 

We have also set the stage for some potential volunteering at Montezuma Well National Monument and we will be doing some advance legwork in that regard before we head south.

As you can already see, this blog really needs to come back to life to chronicle our prep and ideas for the Arizona trip.

The Snowbirds are BAAACK!

Time to hibernate this blog

This blog exists for use when we are traveling to and from Arizona or when we are actually in Arizona.
Now that we are back in our Idahome, we're going to put this blog into hibernation.  We have a ba-zillion blogs, as some of you already know.  However, we created yet another blog at 5:55 am New Year's Day for the specific purpose of writing about our daily activities.  We are excited about the upcoming year and want to "journal it" both for our own recollection and for the edification of our loyal and astute readers.  You can find the new blog here:

http://y2ten.blogspot.com

Thanks for reading--this is the last post on this blog until we head south again someday.  Cheers!  J&S

@ Home on New Year's Eve

Here are a couple more photos.  They are pretty obvious.  In the top one we are etching out a parking area for the big green truck.  We've learned that if we drive over the snow even once, it is compacted for the remainder of the winter.  Your best bet is to take the snow right down to the grass level and then continue to keep after it all winter long.  Otherwise, a sheet of ice will soon appear in the parking spot and you will be slip-sliding for months.  The bottom picture is our little bungalow, all tucked into its winter coat.  We are so happy the place survive our absence in such great shape and style. The next big trick will be to see if we can bring the parked Suzuki Sidekick back to life.  We're not sure its antifreeze was rated good enough to have survived that sub-zero cold snap that took place while we were gone. 

The Legacy Parkway

Here's some photos. The first picture at right is the Legacy Parkway looking north. Note that there is not even ONE single vehicle in sight.  Is this Salt Lake or what?  The Legacy is really amazing--no trucks are allowed and the speed limit is 55 mph and people actually OBSERVE the speed limit.  It's beautiful there.  The second photo is looking into the rear view mirror where we see one lonely vehicle.  Bear in mind this is New Year's Eve.  It's truly surreal on The Legacy.  Even though The Legacy is only 13 miles long (13% of the metroplex gauntlet) it change the entire equation of driving through Salt Lake City.  It's so totally much more relaxing and less stressful.  It boggles our imagination that a conservation state like Utah could have spent the 100's of millions they did on this stretch of highway.  Peaceful, pastoral, bucolic and many other laid back words come to mind in thinking of how to describe The Legacy.  We look forward to this piece of the SLC mayhem.